- Trump's judiciary approval: 38% (lowest issue-specific rating, below his overall approval) — 32% among independents, 28% among college-educated women
- SCOTUS favorable at 43% (Gallup early 2026) — down from 54% pre-Dobbs (2022) to 49% in 2024 to 43% now; lowest since modern tracking
- Partisan SCOTUS gap: 51 points (D favorable 21% vs. R favorable 72%) — compared to 28 points in 2018; the Court has become a partisan symbol, not an institution
- Courts rank as a top-5 motivator for D base voters in 2026; particularly salient in AZ, WI, NC where recent abortion/voting rights rulings have electoral relevance
SCOTUS Favorability: A Decade of Decline
| Year | SCOTUS Favorable | SCOTUS Unfavorable | D Favorable | R Favorable |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 58% | 37% | 49% | 77% |
| 2020 | 56% | 40% | 46% | 74% |
| 2022 (post-Dobbs) | 47% | 49% | 24% | 73% |
| 2024 | 49% | 46% | 25% | 75% |
| 2026 (early) | 43% | 53% | 21% | 72% |
The 51-point partisan gap in SCOTUS approval is historically unprecedented. In 2014 the gap was 15 points. The institution has become as partisan as Congress in public perception.
What's Driving the Numbers
The decline in Trump's judiciary approval reflects several compounding factors. First, the administration's confrontational posture toward federal judges who ruled against immigration enforcement and executive orders generated extensive media coverage in 2025 and early 2026. Polling respondents who follow news closely — disproportionately college-educated and suburban — are most aware of these conflicts, and their disapproval is sharpest. Second, the Supreme Court's administrative law decisions in 2025, which significantly expanded presidential power and narrowed agency authority, were broadly popular with Republicans but deeply unpopular among Democrats and independents who view the rulings as politically motivated. Third, lingering concern about abortion access — which remains a top-five voter issue nationally — keeps judicial questions salient among Democratic-leaning voters who turned out in large numbers in 2022 and 2023 special elections. The overall approval trajectory tracks closely with judicial disapproval.
Issue Salience by Party and Voter Group
Judiciary ranks behind healthcare and democracy/elections but ahead of climate and immigration. Strongest among college-educated women under 50 and Black women over 40.
Below economy, healthcare, immigration, inflation, and government spending. Still substantial but not the primary driver of independent vote choice.
Republicans view judicial appointments and administrative law rulings favorably. The issue does not motivate them against Trump — it motivates them for him.
Bottom Line: Judicial Issues as Democratic Turnout Engine
The judicial approval data points to a consistent story for 2026: courts are a mobilizing issue for Democrats and a non-issue for Republicans. This asymmetry matters enormously in midterm elections, where turnout differentials often determine outcomes. Democratic Senate candidates in competitive states — Wisconsin, North Carolina, Colorado — are increasingly making courts a central issue, connecting SCOTUS rulings and Trump's judiciary approach to abortion access, voting rights, and executive overreach. The question is whether judicial concerns translate into actual votes or whether economic anxiety crowds out other motivators. In 2022, the Dobbs ruling proved that judicial issues can drive midterm turnout at levels comparable to presidential years. The structural conditions for a similar dynamic in 2026 are present. Rating of judicial issue impact on 2026: High for D base mobilization, Moderate for independent persuasion.
