- Wisconsin has no Senate election in 2026. Both seats were recently contested: Johnson (Class 3) won in 2022, Baldwin (Class 1) won in 2024.
- Ron Johnson (R, Class 3) won a third term in 2022 by 1 point over Mandela Barnes, despite previously pledging to serve only two terms. His seat is next up in 2028.
- Tammy Baldwin (D, Class 1) won re-election in 2024 by approximately +4 points in a state Trump carried the same day — one of the largest Senate ticket-splits in the 2024 cycle. Her seat is up in 2030.
- Wisconsin’s 2028 Senate race (Johnson’s seat) is widely expected to be one of the most competitive races of that cycle: a state where Trump won by 0.9 pts in 2024, a controversial three-term incumbent, and a Democratic pickup opportunity.
Candidate Polling Overview
Race Analysis
Why It Matters
Democrats need to flip Republican seats to reclaim the Senate majority. Wisconsin, with its structural 50/50 balance and an incumbent who underperforms his party by 4–5 points, is their single clearest pickup target in the Midwest. A Democratic win here could be decisive for Senate control.
Key Demographics
The WOW suburbs (Waukesha, Ozaukee, Washington) west and north of Milwaukee are the decisive terrain. College-educated voters there have shifted Democratic sharply since 2016. Madison's Dane County provides a large Democratic base; Milwaukee County must post strong turnout. Rural Wisconsin remains solidly Republican.
Path to Victory
Democrats win by running a centrist, healthcare-focused candidate who mirrors Tammy Baldwin's 2024 coalition. The key is neutralizing rural losses while running up margins in Madison and the Milwaukee suburbs. Johnson wins if he consolidates base Republicans and benefits from a national environment that moves toward the GOP.
Ron Johnson — Wisconsin's Most Controversial Senator
Ron Johnson was born in 1955 in Mankato, Minnesota, and built his career in Oshkosh, Wisconsin, where he ran a plastics manufacturing company founded by his father-in-law. He was a political unknown when he ran for Senate in 2010, but the Tea Party wave and a favorable national environment carried him to a 52%–47% victory over three-term incumbent Democrat Russ Feingold — one of the most shocking upsets of that cycle. He survived a Feingold rematch in 2016 by 3.4 points, and in 2022 won a third term by just 1.0 percentage point over Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes.
Johnson had pledged to serve only two terms when first elected, making his 2022 re-election bid itself politically controversial. His three narrow wins in a state that hovers at the absolute 50/50 line in presidential elections have made him among the most exposed senators in the country. What is unusual about Johnson is the degree to which he appears to underperform compared to other Republicans in Wisconsin: in 2022, Democratic Governor Tony Evers won re-election by 3.4 points over Republican Tim Michels — yet Johnson won his Senate race by only 1 point, suggesting he slightly underperformed the top of the Republican ticket. In 2024, Trump won Wisconsin by 0.9 points while Democrat Tammy Baldwin won the other Wisconsin Senate seat by 4 points — a Baldwin-over-Johnson split of roughly 5 points in the same state in the same year.
Johnson's controversies have accumulated over his Senate career. He has made skeptical public comments about the January 6th Capitol attack, promoted unproven COVID-19 treatments, questioned the safety of vaccines, and made statements about Social Security and Medicare that have been used effectively in Democratic attack ads. He is popular among the Wisconsin Republican base but genuinely unpopular in the Milwaukee and Madison suburbs that are Wisconsin's swing geography. Whether he runs for a fourth term is the critical question for Wisconsin 2026.
Historical Results — Wisconsin Senate (Class 3)
| Year | Republican | R % | Democrat | D % | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2028 (proj.) | Ron Johnson (inc.) | ~46% | TBD Democrat | ~49% | D +3 (proj.) |
| 2022 | Ron Johnson (inc.) | 50.4% | Mandela Barnes | 49.4% | R +1.0 |
| 2016 | Ron Johnson (inc.) | 50.2% | Russ Feingold | 46.8% | R +3.4 |
| 2010 | Ron Johnson | 52.0% | Russ Feingold (inc.) | 47.0% | R +5.0 |
| 2004 | Tim Michels | 44.1% | Russ Feingold (inc.) | 55.4% | D +11.3 |
| 1998 | Mark Neumann | 48.4% | Russ Feingold (inc.) | 50.5% | D +2.1 |
What to Watch
Will Johnson run? If Ron Johnson runs for a fourth term after already breaking his two-term pledge once, Democrats will make that pledge the centerpiece of their campaign. If Johnson retires, Wisconsin becomes an open seat — still competitive, but potentially less Democratic-leaning without Johnson's specific baggage on the ballot.
The Tammy Baldwin benchmark: Democrat Tammy Baldwin won Wisconsin in 2024 by 4 points in the same environment that Trump won the presidential by 0.9 points. That 5-point Johnson-specific penalty suggests Democrats could find a strong challenger who runs similarly. A Democrat who matches Baldwin's profile — moderate, well-known, focused on healthcare and workers — starts with a structural advantage.
WOW Counties: Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington counties west and north of Milwaukee have been trending toward Democrats with college-educated voters. In a strong Democratic year, carrying or nearly carrying these counties would be decisive for any Democratic nominee.
National environment: If Trump's approval ratings in Wisconsin remain below 50%, Johnson — who is closely aligned with Trump — faces difficult headwinds. Democrats need only a modest national environment to make this a genuine pickup.
What This Means for Wisconsin Voters
Wisconsin is one of the true 50/50 states in American politics, which means every statewide race is genuinely consequential. For Wisconsin voters in 2026, the Senate race is a direct accountability vote on Ron Johnson’s record: his statements about Social Security and Medicare, his January 6th commentary, his COVID-19 vaccine skepticism, and his decision to run for a third term after pledging to serve only two. Johnson has survived three close races by consolidating rural Wisconsin and Wisconsin Republicans — but his margins have narrowed each cycle as the Milwaukee and Madison suburbs drift left.
Key issues for Wisconsin voters: healthcare (Medicaid expansion affects over 1 million Wisconsinites — see the $800B Medicaid cuts analysis for what the 2025 law means for Wisconsin), tariffs and dairy/agriculture (Wisconsin is the #1 dairy state — Chinese retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural exports hit Wisconsin farmers directly), and the 2026 governor’s race which will also be on the ballot. The governor’s race provides a second data point on Wisconsin’s direction — watch whether the Senate and governor races move in sync or diverge based on candidate quality.
2026 Senate Race Context & National Outlook
The 2026 midterm elections are taking place in an environment shaped by significant economic uncertainty. Trump's Liberation Day tariffs triggered a consumer confidence collapse and PCE inflation surged to 4.5% in Q1 2026. The Trump approval rating stands at 38.1% approve / 59.2% disapprove — among the lowest for any first-year president since modern polling began. The Generic Ballot shows Democrats with a consistent +6.0 advantage, a historically predictive indicator of significant House seat gains.
In the Senate, 33 Class 2 seats are up in 2026. Republicans must defend seats in Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, Alaska, and Texas, while Democrats defend Nevada, New Hampshire, Michigan, Minnesota, and Virginia. Key battleground races that will determine Senate control include Georgia (Jon Ossoff, D), Iowa (open seat, Ernst retires), Nevada (Jacky Rosen, D), and Alaska (Lisa Murkowski, R). The full Senate map is at the Senate 2026 overview.
Issue-level polling context: The top issues driving 2026 are the economy and tariffs, healthcare, immigration, and Social Security. See the Battleground Tracker for the latest state-level polling and the Trump Policy Tracker for executive action context.
