- Split-ticket voting — supporting candidates from different parties in the same election — declined sharply from 2012 to 2020 as partisan sorting accelerated, but has partially rebounded as some voters diverge from MAGA-aligned candidates.
- The 2026 senators most dependent on split-ticket survival are those in states Trump carried — like Tammy Baldwin (WI) proved in 2022 — who won by building a coalition that crossed partisan lines.
- Collins (ME), Murkowski (AK), and potentially a NH Democrat are the clearest 2026 split-ticket candidates: they win by appealing to voters who disagree with them on some issues but trust their independence and competence.
- Geographic concentration of split-ticket voters in suburbs and small cities makes them particularly important in Senate races with close margins — a 3–4 point ticket-split advantage can be the difference in a D+1 or R+1 state.
- Republican primary dynamics increasingly punish the independence that enables split-ticket wins, creating tension between the coalition-building needed for general election success and the base-solidifying required for primary survival.
The Split-Ticket Champions: Who Does It and How
| Candidate | District Lean | Personal Vote Premium | Key Brand | 2026 Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Susan Collins (R-ME) | D+8 | +18 pts vs. R baseline | Independent moderate | Running, Lean R |
| Jared Golden (D, ME-2) | R+6 | +12 pts vs. D baseline | Conservative Democrat | Left for Senate? |
| Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA-1) | D+3 | +8 pts vs. R baseline | Former FBI, moderate | Running 2026 |
| Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) | R+10 | +15 pts vs. R primary | Independent, RCV | Not up in 2026 |
| Don Bacon (R, NE-2) | D+2 | +7 pts vs. R baseline | Military, moderate | Running 2026 |
Why Ticket-Splitting Declined and What Brought It Back
The collapse of ticket-splitting from 1996 to 2016 followed the collapse of ideological cross-party overlap. In 1990, there were 50+ conservative Democrats and liberal Republicans in Congress. By 2016, the ideological sorting was nearly complete. Voters had fewer cognitive dissonance-inducing options: all Democrats were liberal, all Republicans were conservative, and party label became the most efficient voting heuristic.
What partially reversed the trend: Trump’s personal unpopularity pushed college-educated Republicans to split tickets rather than abandon the party entirely. In 2018 and 2020, many voters who voted Republican in 2016 shifted to Democratic House candidates while maintaining some Republican preferences down ballot. This created the Collins and Fitzpatrick model: R incumbents with moderate profiles in D-trending districts.
In 2026, the question is whether D+6 national headwinds overwhelm even the strongest personal vote incumbents. Collins survived 2020 in a D+8 environment. Can she survive 2026 in a D+6 environment with six years of additional polarization? Historical models suggest yes — her personal vote premium should still leave her with a 55–45 probability of winning. But it is far from guaranteed.
The 2026 Split-Ticket Races: Who Needs It Most
In 2026, the incumbents most dependent on split-ticket voters are concentrated in suburban suburban districts and blue-state Senate seats. Susan Collins in Maine needs to repeat her 2020 performance: carrying a state where Democrats win the presidential race by 6-8 points. Collins has done this by cultivating an independence brand that goes beyond rhetoric — her votes against Trump appointments and high-profile breaks with the caucus are not political accidents but deliberate signals to the 15% of Maine voters who consider themselves political independents and evaluate her specifically.
In the House, Brian Fitzpatrick (PA-1) is the gold standard. His Bucks County district voted for Biden in 2020, and Fitzpatrick held on by portraying himself as a practical problem-solver rather than a partisan fighter. Don Bacon in NE-2 (Omaha) uses a military background and constituent service record similarly. Both incumbents need to outperform the generic Republican ballot by 5-8 points. In a D+6 generic ballot environment, that requires performance levels they have achieved before but only barely.
The key metric to watch on election night: if these incumbents are outrunning the Republican House candidate average in their state by less than 4 points, they are in serious trouble. If they are outrunning by 8+ points, they survive. The gap between their vote and the baseline will be the sharpest real-time indicator of whether the national environment has overwhelmed personal vote advantages.
| Incumbent | District/State Lean | Required Outperformance | Historical Peak Premium | Survival Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Susan Collins (R-ME Senate) | D+8 | Need +16 vs. R baseline | +18 pts (2020) | ~58% |
| Brian Fitzpatrick (R, PA-1) | D+3 | Need +9 vs. R baseline | +8 pts (2022) | ~52% |
| Don Bacon (R, NE-2) | D+2 | Need +8 vs. R baseline | +7 pts (2022) | ~48% (ran last cycle) |
| Nancy Mace (R, SC-1) | D+2 | Need +8 vs. R baseline | +6 pts (2022) | ~44% |
| Angus King (I-ME Senate) | D+8 | Need +3 vs. D baseline | +5 pts (2018) | ~72% — benefits from R/D both |
