- Supreme Court public approval fell to 25% in mid-2022 following the Dobbs decision — the lowest recorded level in Gallup's history of measuring it — and has only partially recovered to approximately 40% by early 2026.
- The SCOTUS approval collapse is almost entirely partisan: 76% of Republicans approve of the Court's direction; only 16% of Democrats do — making SCOTUS as polarized an institution as Congress or the presidency.
- Ethics controversies (unreported gifts to Justice Thomas, questions about travel by other justices) have added a credibility dimension to the approval decline that is distinct from policy disagreements over specific rulings.
- Supreme Court reform measures — term limits, mandatory ethics codes, court expansion — poll at majority support in most surveys, but face constitutional and political barriers to implementation without a supermajority in Congress.
- SCOTUS approval trends inform 2026 strategy: Democrats mobilize around the court as an argument for Senate control (blocking future conservative appointments); low approval among independents creates a persuasion opportunity.
SCOTUS Approval: Key Trend Points
Dobbs: The Approval Watershed
The Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision (June 24, 2022) was the single largest negative approval event in modern SCOTUS polling history. Approval dropped 9 percentage points in approximately six weeks. The decision not only moved overall approval but also reshaped the partisan composition of SCOTUS trust in ways that have not reversed.
Among women, approval fell to 35% in the immediate post-Dobbs period. Among voters under 40, it fell to 31%. Among Democrats, it collapsed to 24%. Four years later, SCOTUS has recovered 3 points nationally but among these subgroups recovery has been partial at best. The presidential immunity ruling in July 2024 — giving presidents broad immunity from criminal prosecution for official acts — further eroded Democratic confidence in the Court’s independence.
Ethics Controversies and Reform Pressure
Reporting beginning in 2023 about undisclosed gifts and travel to Justice Thomas from conservative megadonor Harlan Crow, and similar reporting about Justice Alito, produced sustained negative attention. 64% of Americans say the Supreme Court’s ethics rules are insufficient; 72% support mandatory financial disclosure for justices (the same standard applied to lower federal court judges).
Congress passed a limited SCOTUS code of ethics in late 2023, but it lacks enforcement mechanisms — a gap that 67% of Americans say makes it inadequate. Democratic proposals to expand the Court from nine to thirteen justices poll at 34% support overall, but 61% support among self-identified Democrats — indicating a growing Democratic constituency for structural reform that will shape 2026 and 2028 campaign platforms.
What SCOTUS Approval Means for 2026 Elections
Court approval and electoral behavior are not directly linked — voters rarely cast ballots specifically because of SCOTUS favorability. But the Court's 31-point partisan gap in approval maps almost perfectly onto the generic congressional ballot partisan split. Democrats who distrust the Court are also the most motivated to vote in 2026 midterms. The Trump judicial approval ratings (38% on court-handling) and SCOTUS approval combine into a judicial-dissatisfaction cluster that ranks #3 among Democratic base motivators behind healthcare and democracy concerns.
The court expansion question is increasingly a 2028 issue. Democratic presidential candidates who want to signal seriousness to the activist base now routinely answer whether they support court expansion — 61% of Democrats support it. The court becomes a mobilization instrument for Democrats and a rallying point for Republicans who correctly see it as a major achievement of the Trump era. For Senate majority math, judicial issues are most salient in states with recent high-profile abortion and voting rights rulings: Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Arizona.
