Alaska 2026 Election Outlook & Forecast
Competitive ratings, key races, and political forecast for Alaska in the 2026 midterm elections.
Lean R
2026 State Rating
+12
Trump 2024 Margin
Energy policy, federal lands, cost of living
Key Issue
Alaska
State
2026 Election Overview
Alaska has split-ticket voting patterns that make it unique. Mary Peltola won the at-large House seat twice using ranked-choice voting despite the state leaning Republican. The 2026 House race will be watched nationally as a test of RCV and Alaska’s political idiosyncrasies.
Key Races
| Race | Status |
|---|---|
| State Rating | Lean R |
| Trump 2024 Margin | +12 |
| U.S. Senate | Lisa Murkowski (R) up in 2028 — not 2026 |
| Governor | Not up in 2026 |
| U.S. House Seats | 1 At-Large — Mary Peltola (D) defending under RCV |
| Key Issue | Energy policy, federal lands, cost of living |
Forecast
Peltola (D) faces a competitive House race but RCV gives her a structural advantage over divided Republican opposition. Lisa Murkowski remains a moderate wild card on federal issues.