Arizona 2026 Election Outlook & Forecast
Competitive ratings, key races, and political forecast for Arizona in the 2026 midterm elections.
Toss-Up
2026 State Rating
+0.3
Trump 2024 Margin
Immigration, economy, abortion
Key Issue
Arizona
State
2026 Election Overview
Arizona is the premier Sun Belt battleground. Governor Katie Hobbs faces a tough 2026 reelection against a Republican field energized by 2024 results. Competitive House districts in suburban Phoenix and Tucson will be contested. The state’s growing Latino and suburban population creates genuine two-party competition.
Key Races
| Race | Status |
|---|---|
| State Rating | Toss-Up |
| Trump 2024 Margin | +0.3 |
| U.S. Senate | Ruben Gallego (D) just won in 2024 — not up |
| Governor | Katie Hobbs (D) up in 2026 — competitive |
| U.S. House Seats | 6R, 3D — AZ-1, AZ-6 competitive |
| Key Issue | Immigration, economy, abortion |
Forecast
Toss-up for governor and 1-2 House seats. Republicans have an edge in the environment but Arizona’s electorate is genuinely competitive.