Florida 2026 Election Outlook & Forecast
Competitive ratings, key races, and political forecast for Florida in the 2026 midterm elections.
Likely R
2026 State Rating
+13
Trump 2024 Margin
Insurance crisis, economy, immigration, DeSantis legacy
Key Issue
Florida
State
2026 Election Overview
Florida has been the most dramatic political transformation of the decade. The governor race will be a national event. A competitive Democratic primary (possibly Nikki Fried, Charlie Crist redux) versus a Republican primary that could feature multiple notable candidates. Republicans start with a significant structural advantage.
Key Races
| Race | Status |
|---|---|
| State Rating | Likely R |
| Trump 2024 Margin | +13 |
| U.S. Senate | No Senate seat up in 2026 |
| Governor | Ron DeSantis term-limited — massive open race (both parties) |
| U.S. House Seats | 20R, 8D — FL-7, FL-10, FL-23 competitive |
| Key Issue | Insurance crisis, economy, immigration, DeSantis legacy |
Forecast
Republicans favored for governor but Democrats have path. Multiple competitive House seats. The governor race will be the most-watched 2026 contest nationally.