Hawaii 2026 Election Outlook & Forecast
Competitive ratings, key races, and political forecast for Hawaii in the 2026 midterm elections.
Safe D
2026 State Rating
-29
Trump 2024 Margin
Cost of living, housing, Maui wildfire recovery
Key Issue
Hawaii
State
2026 Election Overview
Hawaii is solidly Democratic. The main political news is Maui wildfire recovery politics and the ongoing cost of living crisis. Governor Josh Green is popular and faces no real challenge.
Key Races
| Race | Status |
|---|---|
| State Rating | Safe D |
| Trump 2024 Margin | -29 |
| U.S. Senate | Mazie Hirono (D) not up in 2026 |
| Governor | Josh Green (D) — facing easy reelection |
| U.S. House Seats | 2D — not competitive |
| Key Issue | Cost of living, housing, Maui wildfire recovery |
Forecast
Democrats hold everything easily. Hawaii is off the competitive map.