Likely Democratic

New Jersey Political History & Voting Patterns

Competitive through 1980s-90s; reliably D since 2000. A complete guide to how New Jersey has voted in presidential elections, which coalitions have driven results, and how the state has shifted over time.

D+16
Current Lean
14
Electoral Votes
9.3M
Population

Historical Overview

New Jersey’s political geography is a study in suburbs. The Philadelphia suburbs (Camden, Burlington, Gloucester Counties) vote Democratic; the New York metro suburbs (Bergen, Morris Counties) used to vote Republican but have shifted. Bob Menendez held the Senate seat from 1991 before his federal corruption conviction in 2024 led Andy Kim to run and win. The state’s political scandal history (Menendez, Jim McGreevey’s resignation, Chris Christie’s Bridgegate) has shaped its culture of skeptical voters. Phil Murphy served two terms before Jack Ciattarelli won the 2025 governor’s race.

Key Elections & Turning Points

Year Significance
1988Bush won NJ
1993Christie Whitman beat Jim Florio in wave-R year
2001Jim McGreevey won; Corzine won 2005; Christie 2009
2017Murphy won; end of Christie era
2021Murphy barely re-elected vs. Ciattarelli
2024Harris +11 — shrinking margin vs. Biden 2020

Geographic Voting Patterns

Democratic Strongholds

Essex County (Newark, D+70+), Hudson County (Jersey City/Hoboken), Union County

Republican Strongholds

Ocean County (Toms River, R+35), Monmouth County (shifting), Morris County (historically R)

Realignment Driver

Primary factor: Suburban education gap, NYC commuter culture, ethnic community politics, post-Christie fatigue

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Generic Ballot Democrats48.1% Republicans41.1% D+7 Trump Approval Approve39% Disapprove58% Senate D47 R53 House D213 R222 Generic Ballot Tracker Trump Approval Senate 2026 House 2026 Latest Analysis