Texas 2026 Election Outlook & Forecast
Competitive ratings, key races, and political forecast for Texas in the 2026 midterm elections.
Likely R
2026 State Rating
+14
Trump 2024 Margin
Border security, economy, energy, abortion
Key Issue
Texas
State
2026 Election Overview
Texas continues to be the Democrats’ long-term target. Competitive House seats in Houston suburbs, Dallas suburbs, and the Rio Grande Valley. Cornyn faces reelection but is favored in a Republican state. Greg Abbott’s reelection will test whether Texas is definitively red or trending competitive.
Key Races
| Race | Status |
|---|---|
| State Rating | Likely R |
| Trump 2024 Margin | +14 |
| U.S. Senate | John Cornyn (R) — up in 2026, favored |
| Governor | Greg Abbott (R) not up until 2026 (his term) |
| U.S. House Seats | 25R, 13D — TX-7, TX-15, TX-28, TX-32 competitive |
| Key Issue | Border security, economy, energy, abortion |
Forecast
Cornyn wins Senate comfortably. Multiple competitive House races. Abbott favored for governor but margins matter. TX-7 and TX-32 (Houston suburbs) are top targets.