Texas Demographics 2026
30 million residents in America's second-largest state. Texas is simultaneously majority-Hispanic, home to some of the nation's fastest-growing suburbs, and the largest state without a Democratic senator since 1993.
Race & Ethnicity Breakdown
| Group | Texas | National Avg | Partisan Lean |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hispanic / Latino | 40% | 19% | D+15 statewide (declining) |
| White Non-Hispanic | 40% | 59% | R+20 non-metro |
| Black / African American | 13% | 13% | D+75 (Houston, Dallas) |
| Asian American / Pacific Islander | 5% | 6% | D+35 (Houston) |
| Multiracial / Other | 2% | 3% | Split |
| Urban population | 85% | 83% | D-leaning metro core |
| Rural population | 15% | 17% | R+40 avg |
| Median age | 35.5 yrs | 38.9 yrs | Younger = variable |
| College-educated adults | 31% | 33% | Shifting D (suburbs) |
Regional Breakdown
Key Trends & 2026 Implications
Hispanic Population: But Which Way?
Texas adds ~250,000 Hispanic residents annually. For decades this was assumed to be a pure Democratic gain. 2020 and 2024 showed large Republican gains among Texas Hispanic men. The partisan trajectory of this growth is now the central question of Texas politics.
College Suburbs vs. Non-College Rural
Texas has one of the most pronounced education-based geographic political splits. College-town suburbs (Austin, DFW, Houston Greenway) move D; non-college rural (West Texas, East Texas) move R. Net result: Texas is more polarized but overall stays R-leaning.
Cornyn Senate Race: Competitive?
John Cornyn faces re-election in 2026. Democrats came within 3 points of Cornyn in 2020 (MJ Hegar). With DFW suburb shifts and Austin growth, a well-funded Democrat could keep it competitive. Requires 2018-level suburban enthusiasm + strong Hispanic base turnout.
