Vermont 2026 Election Outlook & Forecast
Competitive ratings, key races, and political forecast for Vermont in the 2026 midterm elections.
Safe D
2026 State Rating
-36
Trump 2024 Margin
Housing costs, flooding/climate recovery, economy
Key Issue
Vermont
State
2026 Election Overview
Vermont has the unusual situation of a popular Republican governor in the bluest state. Phil Scott has been reelected multiple times by huge margins in a state that votes overwhelmingly Democratic nationally. Bernie Sanders potential retirement would create an interesting Senate race.
Key Races
| Race | Status |
|---|---|
| State Rating | Safe D |
| Trump 2024 Margin | -36 |
| U.S. Senate | Bernie Sanders (I/D) — potentially retiring; Peter Welch not up |
| Governor | Phil Scott (R) — up for reelection, popular despite blue state |
| U.S. House Seats | 1D (Becca Balint) — not competitive |
| Key Issue | Housing costs, flooding/climate recovery, economy |
Forecast
Scott wins reelection easily despite Vermont being deep blue. Senate race depends on Sanders decision — Democrats favored if he retires.