2024 Final Electoral College Result
Electoral Votes by Competitiveness Tier
2024 results grouped by how safely each tier voted. Toss-up states were the decisive battlegrounds.
All 50 States + DC: 2024 Electoral College Results
Safe Republican (>10 point margin) — ~200 Electoral Votes
| State | EV | 2024 Margin | 2028 Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | 40 | R +14 | Safe R |
| Florida | 30 | R +13 | Safe R |
| Ohio | 17 | R +11 | Safe R |
| Tennessee | 11 | R +26 | Safe R |
| Alabama | 9 | R +27 | Safe R |
| South Carolina | 9 | R +12 | Safe R |
| Missouri | 10 | R +18 | Safe R |
| Indiana | 11 | R +18 | Safe R |
| Kentucky | 8 | R +26 | Safe R |
| West Virginia | 4 | R +30 | Safe R |
| Mississippi | 6 | R +15 | Safe R |
| Louisiana | 8 | R +19 | Safe R |
| Arkansas | 6 | R +27 | Safe R |
| Oklahoma | 7 | R +32 | Safe R |
| Kansas | 6 | R +17 | Safe R |
| Nebraska | 4* | R +19 | Safe R |
| South Dakota | 3 | R +27 | Safe R |
| North Dakota | 3 | R +32 | Safe R |
| Wyoming | 3 | R +44 | Safe R |
| Montana | 4 | R +13 | Likely R |
| Utah | 6 | R +13 | Likely R |
| Idaho | 4 | R +30 | Safe R |
| Alaska | 3 | R +14 | Likely R |
Lean/Likely Republican — ~30 Electoral Votes
| State | EV | 2024 Margin | 2028 Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | 16 | R +3.3 | Lean R |
| Iowa | 6 | R +14 | Likely R |
| Florida ME-2 / NE-1 | (split) | R | Lean R |
Toss-Up / Battleground — ~80 Electoral Votes
| State | EV | 2024 Result | Margin | 2028 Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | 19 | Trump | R +4.5 | Toss-Up |
| Georgia | 16 | Trump | R +2.1 | Toss-Up |
| Michigan | 15 | Trump | R +1.4 | Toss-Up |
| Arizona | 11 | Trump | R +5.5 | Lean R |
| Wisconsin | 10 | Trump | R +0.5 | Toss-Up |
| Nevada | 6 | Harris | D +3.1 | Toss-Up |
| Minnesota | 10 | Harris | D +3.5 | Lean D |
Lean/Likely Democratic — ~40 Electoral Votes
| State | EV | 2024 Margin | 2028 Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Hampshire | 4 | D +2.7 | Lean D |
| Colorado | 10 | D +11 | Likely D |
| New Mexico | 5 | D +10 | Likely D |
| Virginia | 13 | D +6.6 | Likely D |
| Maine | 4* | D +7.1 | Lean D |
Safe Democratic (>10 point margin) — ~200 Electoral Votes
| State | EV | 2024 Margin | 2028 Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| California | 54 | D +20 | Safe D |
| New York | 28 | D +12 | Safe D |
| Illinois | 19 | D +14 | Safe D |
| Washington | 12 | D +16 | Safe D |
| Massachusetts | 11 | D +28 | Safe D |
| Maryland | 10 | D +29 | Safe D |
| New Jersey | 14 | D +5.6 | Likely D |
| Oregon | 8 | D +14 | Safe D |
| Connecticut | 7 | D +19 | Safe D |
| Vermont | 3 | D +37 | Safe D |
| Rhode Island | 4 | D +16 | Safe D |
| Hawaii | 4 | D +29 | Safe D |
| DC | 3 | D +76 | Safe D |
| Delaware | 3 | D +13 | Safe D |
The 270 to Win Rule
There are 538 total electoral votes — one for each of the 435 House members, 100 Senators, and 3 for the District of Columbia (granted by the 23rd Amendment). A candidate must win a majority — at least 270 — to become president.
If no candidate reaches 270 (possible if a strong third-party candidate wins states), the election is decided by the House of Representatives under the 12th Amendment, with each state delegation casting one vote. This has not happened since 1824.
In 2024, Trump reached 270 on election night by winning Pennsylvania, giving him a clear path to 312 once all results were certified. Harris's 226 represented strong performances in the coasts and upper Midwest college-educated areas.
Nebraska & Maine: The Split-District Exception
Nebraska (5 EV)
Nebraska allocates its 5 electoral votes as: 2 for the statewide winner + 1 per congressional district (3 districts). In 2024, Trump won the statewide result and districts 1 and 3 — but Nebraska's 2nd district (Omaha metro), voted for Harris, giving her 1 electoral vote from a deep-red state. This is known as "Nebraska-2."
Maine (4 EV)
Maine allocates its 4 electoral votes as: 2 for the statewide winner + 1 per congressional district (2 districts). In 2024, Harris won the statewide result and the 1st district (Portland metro) — but Maine's 2nd district (rural northern Maine) voted for Trump, giving him 1 electoral vote from a blue-leaning state. This is "Maine-2."
Both Maine-2 (Trump) and Nebraska-2 (Harris) produced 1 EV each, effectively canceling out. In close elections, these split districts can matter — in 2020, Nebraska-2 gave Biden 1 EV.
Electoral College Shifts Since 2000
| Election | Republican EV | Democratic EV | Winner | Key swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 271 | 266 | Bush (R) | FL +537 votes decided it |
| 2004 | 286 | 251 | Bush (R) | OH swung R; first R pop. vote win since '88 |
| 2008 | 173 | 365 | Obama (D) | Massive D wave; IN, NC, VA flipped D |
| 2012 | 206 | 332 | Obama (D) | OH, FL, VA held for Obama |
| 2016 | 306 | 232 | Trump (R) | PA, MI, WI flipped R (Blue Wall broken) |
| 2020 | 232 | 306 | Biden (D) | PA, MI, WI, GA, AZ flipped D |
| 2024 | 312 | 226 | Trump (R) | PA, GA, AZ, MI, WI flipped back to R |
Frequently Asked Questions
How does the Electoral College work?
Each state gets a number of electors equal to its Congressional representation (House seats + 2 Senate seats). There are 538 total electors, and a candidate needs 270 to win. In 48 states, the winner of the popular vote in that state wins all of its electoral votes (winner-take-all). Only Nebraska and Maine allocate some votes by congressional district. Electors formally vote in December, and Congress certifies the result in January.
What states are the key Electoral College battlegrounds?
The core battlegrounds are Pennsylvania (19 EV), Georgia (16 EV), Michigan (15 EV), North Carolina (16 EV), Arizona (11 EV), Wisconsin (10 EV), and Nevada (6 EV). Pennsylvania is often the single most pivotal state: every president since 1988 has won Pennsylvania, making it the most reliable bellwether for the overall result.
Can you win the presidency without California?
Yes. California's 54 electoral votes are solidly Democratic, but a candidate only needs 270 to win — not California. Trump won both 2016 and 2024 without California. The Republican path to 270 runs through the South (TX, FL, GA, NC, SC), the Midwest (OH, IN, MO, IA), and the Mountain West (AZ, UT, ID). A candidate who sweeps these regions can easily surpass 270 without a single West Coast state.
How do Nebraska and Maine allocate electoral votes differently?
Both states use the congressional district method: 2 electoral votes go to the statewide popular vote winner, and each congressional district awards 1 EV to whoever wins that district. Nebraska has 3 districts (5 EV total); Maine has 2 districts (4 EV total). In practice, this means competitive urban districts (Omaha in Nebraska, southern Maine) can split their 1 EV to the opposite party from the statewide result. In 2024, Nebraska-2 went to Harris and Maine-2 went to Trump.
Electoral College Map - Video
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