Greece: Mitsotakis, Migration & the Aegean Frontier 2026

Kyriakos Mitsotakis and his centre-right New Democracy party entered 2026 from a position of notable political strength. After winning a first election in May 2023 without a majority — triggering a legally required second round under a different electoral system — New Democracy swept the June 2023 snap election with 40.6% of the vote and a commanding 157-seat majority in the 300-seat Vouli. It was the largest parliamentary majority Greece had seen in decades and gave Mitsotakis a strong mandate for a second full term.

The opposition landscape has undergone significant restructuring since the left-wing SYRIZA party's crushing 2023 defeat. SYRIZA's founder Alexis Tsipras resigned and the party elected Stefanos Kasselakis — a Greek-American former Goldman Sachs trader — as its new leader in a direct membership vote, before internal party drama saw Kasselakis ousted and replaced. The party has struggled to find a stable identity and consistent leadership, leaving it well behind New Democracy in the polls and in parliament. PASOK, the historic social-democratic party once dominant in Greek politics, has been the main beneficiary of SYRIZA's turmoil and is slowly recovering its traditional centre-left constituency.

The far-right Hellenic Solution has maintained a steady presence, benefiting from voter frustration over immigration and the economy. The Communist KKE, though ideologically rigid, retains a loyal base and consistent parliamentary representation. Mitsotakis has used his majority to push through economic reforms, attract foreign direct investment — Greece received a credit rating upgrade for the first time in years — and maintain a tough stance on migration management along the Aegean coast. Critics, particularly from the left, have raised serious concerns about alleged pushbacks of asylum seekers at the Greek-Turkish maritime border, a controversy that has put Greece in repeated conflict with EU human rights monitors.

Greece occupies a strategically unique position within the European Union as the bloc’s southeastern frontier state. More than any other EU member, Greece sits at the intersection of the EU’s external migration management challenge and the complex geopolitics of the Eastern Mediterranean. The Aegean Sea, which separates Greece from Turkey, has been the primary entry route for migrants and asylum seekers attempting to reach Europe — most notably during the 2015-16 refugee crisis and in ongoing smaller-scale crossings since. Greece has pressed the EU consistently and often bitterly for greater burden-sharing, arguing that the current Dublin Regulation places disproportionate responsibility on frontline states.

Relations with Turkey remain a defining axis of Greek foreign policy and, by extension, EU policy toward Ankara. The two NATO allies have overlapping maritime claims in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, periodic military tensions over airspace violations, and an unresolved dispute over Cyprus. Greece has also been a central player in the long-running North Macedonia naming dispute, which was resolved by the 2018 Prespa Agreement — Greece agreed to accept the name “North Macedonia” in exchange for its neighbour’s NATO and EU accession, though the agreement remains politically contentious domestically. Greece also represents the EU’s concern about Russian interference in the Balkans, particularly given its Orthodox Christian cultural ties and historical Russian influence in the region.

Greece maintains close military and intelligence ties with the United States, anchored by a bilateral defense cooperation agreement that gives the US access to Greek military bases including Souda Bay in Crete — one of NATO's most strategically important Mediterranean naval facilities. US-Greece defense cooperation has strengthened under Mitsotakis, with Greece purchasing F-35 fighter jets and investing in US-made defense equipment. The Mitsotakis government has been a reliable pro-US voice within the EU, supporting NATO cohesion even as relations between Washington and Brussels have been strained by Trump-era trade disputes and NATO burden-sharing demands.

The US-Greece relationship has a direct bearing on the Greece-Turkey dynamic. Washington has historically tried to manage its two NATO allies' competing claims in the Aegean, with varying success. The Trump administration's warmer relations with Turkey's Erdogan have at times created anxiety in Athens, where any perception of US tilt toward Ankara is politically sensitive. Greece's strategic value to the US — its location, its ports, and its role as a stable pro-Western democracy in a volatile neighborhood — gives Athens leverage that smaller countries on NATO's periphery lack.