Spain: Sánchez, Catalan Amnesty & Europe's Growth Star

Spain's political landscape since the 2023 elections has been defined by the extraordinary mathematics of a hung parliament and the deals required to navigate it. Pedro Sánchez's PSOE and its left-wing coalition partner Sumar together hold only around 152 seats in the 350-seat Congress of Deputies — far short of the 176 needed for a majority. To secure his investiture as PM in November 2023, Sánchez negotiated support from a disparate collection of regional parties, most controversially including Junts per Catalunya (led by exiled former Catalan president Carles Puigdemont) and ERC (Republican Left of Catalonia). The price was a highly controversial amnesty law for those involved in the 2017 Catalan independence referendum — including Puigdemont himself, who has been living in Belgian self-imposed exile since 2017 to avoid Spanish prosecution.

The amnesty law triggered mass protests organized by the conservative PP and the far-right Vox, and remains deeply divisive in Spanish society. Critics argue it sets a precedent of rewarding illegal acts for political gain; supporters argue it is a necessary step toward reconciliation with Catalonia. Sánchez has framed the deal as pragmatic politics in the service of governability. Maintaining this coalition is an ongoing challenge: each budget vote, each legislative initiative requires fresh negotiations with a coalition of parties with fundamentally different and often contradictory interests. The government has occasionally lost votes and survived no-confidence motions narrowly. Its stability through 2027 is uncertain.

Meanwhile, the conservative PP (People's Party) under Alberto Nuñez Feijóo won the most seats in the July 2023 election but could not form a government. Its alliance with the far-right Vox has proven electorally toxic enough that no other parties would support a PP-Vox coalition. Vox itself has been in decline, partly due to internal tensions and partly because the PP has moved rightward to absorb some of Vox's voter base. Spain's economic performance — GDP growth of over 4% in 2024, one of the strongest rates in the developed world — has been Sánchez's most powerful political asset, providing a counter-narrative to the political chaos of minority government.

Spain is the EU's fifth-largest economy and holds 61 seats in the European Parliament, making it a significant player in EU legislative processes. Sánchez has been a consistent and vocal advocate for the EU's progressive agenda — supporting the Green Deal, EU recovery funds, and EU solidarity on migration. Spain held the rotating EU Council presidency in the second half of 2023, which Sánchez used to push for completion of the EU asylum pact. Spain's PSOE is a major force within the S&D group in the European Parliament, and PP is a leading member of the EPP.

Spain is also the EU's bridge to Latin America — culturally, linguistically, and diplomatically — giving it a foreign policy role that other European nations lack. Spanish is the second most spoken language in the world, and Spain's relationships with Mexico, Argentina, Colombia, and others provide the EU with diplomatic channels and economic partnerships that are uniquely accessible through Madrid. On EU-level defense policy, Sánchez has been broadly supportive of greater EU strategic autonomy, aligning with France's Macron on the concept of a more independent European defense capacity.

Spain under Pedro Sánchez has been among the EU member states most ideologically opposed to the Trump administration's agenda. Sánchez is a social democrat who championed the EU's Green Deal, progressive migration policy, and multilateral international institutions — all positions at odds with Trump's priorities. Spain has been vocally critical of Trump's tariff escalation against the EU, with Sánchez calling for a united European trade response. On Ukraine, Spain has supported EU and NATO aid packages, though Spanish contributions have been modest relative to larger members. The ideological distance between Madrid and Washington is the widest it has been since the early 2000s.

On NATO, Spain holds a particular strategic importance: it hosts two major US military bases (Rota and Morón de la Frontera) under the US–Spain bilateral Defense Cooperation Agreement, making it a critical node for US force projection into the Atlantic, Africa, and the Mediterranean. This gives Washington leverage over Madrid even amid ideological disagreements, and ensures a floor of functional military cooperation regardless of political differences at the top. Spain increased its defense spending in 2025 but remains below the 2% NATO GDP target that Trump has pressured European allies to meet. Sánchez has committed to reaching the target by 2029, but the timeline has drawn US criticism.

Spain's far-right story differs meaningfully from the Netherlands or Sweden: Vox has not broken through to governing power, and its trajectory since peaking around 2019–2021 has been one of gradual decline. The party entered the national parliament for the first time in April 2019 with 24 seats, soared to 52 seats in November 2019, then fell to 33 seats in the July 2023 elections. Current polls put Vox at 12–15% — still a significant political force but clearly on a downward slope. The primary reason is tactical: the mainstream right PP under Feijóo has moved rightward on immigration and cultural issues, absorbing voters who might otherwise have gone to Vox. A similar pattern has occurred in Germany (CDU hardening on migration to compete with AfD) and France (the centre increasingly irrelevant as the primary competition is between RN and the left).

The irony for the Spanish right is that Vox's presence, though declining, remains electorally toxic enough to prevent PP from forming a majority. After the 2023 elections, PP won the most votes but could not assemble a government because no centre or regional party would enter a coalition that included Vox. This dynamic may persist into 2027: if Vox remains at 12–15% and PP stays around 33–35%, the combined right-wing total is sufficient for a majority — but the coalition arithmetic still requires a Vox deal that potential PP coalition partners would reject. Spain's right thus risks repeating the 2023 situation: winning the most votes but losing the government because its only coalition path runs through an unacceptable partner.