- The next European Parliament elections are scheduled for June 2029 — with the 2026 EU political landscape setting the stage for the campaign.
- The EPP (center-right) remains the largest EU Parliament group after 2024 — governing through coalitions with S\&D and Renew Europe.
- The far-right ECR and ID groups (25%+ of EP seats after 2024) represent the largest challenge to the centrist EU consensus since the Parliament's founding.
- EU Parliament elections historically have lower turnout (40-50%) than national elections — but 2024 saw higher engagement, particularly among younger voters concerned about immigration and climate.
2024 EP Results vs. 2029 Projections
| Group | 2024 Seats | 2029 Projection | Trend | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPP (Centre-Right) | 188 | 185–195 | → Stable | Dominant bloc; von der Leyen reconfirmed as Commission President |
| S&D (Socialists) | 136 | 120–130 | ↓ Declining | Structural decline in southern Europe; German SPD losses hurt |
| Renew Europe (Liberals) | 77 | 65–75 | ↓ Declining | Macron’s bloc shrinking; Dutch D66 losses compound |
| ECR (Far-Right) | 78 | 85–95 | ↑ Growing | Meloni’s bloc; FdI strong in Italy, PiS return possible in Poland |
| Patriots for Europe | 84 | 85–100 | ↑ Growing | Orban, Le Pen, Babis; largest far-right bloc in EP history |
| Greens/EFA | 53 | 40–50 | ↓ Declining | Post-Green Wave hangover; climate fatigue in rural constituencies |
| The Left (GUE/NGL) | 46 | 42–48 | → Stable | Modest base; Melenchon’s LFI affiliate remains significant |
| ESN / Non-Attached | 25+ | 25–35 | → Stable | Extreme right fringe (AfD, etc.) outside mainstream groups |
Projections based on aggregated national polls, April 2025. EP group membership subject to national election results 2025–2029.
The Political Context
The 2024 European Parliament elections produced a Parliament that shifted meaningfully to the right without handing the far right control. The EPP under Ursula von der Leyen retained its position as the largest group and secured a second term for von der Leyen as European Commission President, this time with votes from ECR members — a significant and controversial step toward normalising far-right cooperation at the EU level. The formation of the Patriots for Europe supergroup in 2024, uniting Orban’s Fidesz, Le Pen’s RN, Andrej Babis’s ANO, and others, created the largest far-right bloc in EU parliamentary history. When combined with the ECR, the two far-right groups hold more seats than the Socialists and Renew combined.
The key question for 2029 is whether the EPP will continue to position itself as a firewall against far-right governance, or whether the logic of coalition arithmetic will pull it toward formal cooperation with ECR and Patriots. Von der Leyen has consistently said EPP will not govern with ECR or Patriots, but she has accepted ECR votes on an issue-by-issue basis — a distinction that is becoming harder to maintain as policy positions converge on migration, industrial regulation, and the Green Deal rollback. If the EPP formally crosses that line, it would produce a structural majority that could reshape EU policy on asylum, climate, and regulation in ways not seen since the bloc was founded.
The Progressive Alliance — the informal coalition of S&D, Renew, and Greens that dominated EU legislation from 2019–2024 — faces demographic and electoral headwinds. The Greens lost over 20 seats in 2024 as the post-pandemic cost-of-living crisis eroded support for ambitious climate spending. Renew Europe is dependent on Macron’s Renaissance and a collection of smaller liberal parties; Macron’s declining domestic fortunes directly reduce Renew’s seat count. The Socialists remain competitive in Spain, Portugal, and Romania, but losses in Germany and France could push them below 120 seats by 2029, their worst result since the 1990s.
Key Groups & Leaders to Watch
Ursula von der Leyen
Commission President, EPP anchor. Will not run again in 2029 (age). EPP leadership succession will define the group’s ideological direction and whether it formally partners with the far right.
Le Pen, Orban, Babis
Largest far-right bloc. Jordan Bardella chairs the group. Cohesion challenged by Russia/Ukraine divisions: Orban pro-Russia, others more ambiguous.
Giorgia Meloni
Italian PM leads ECR. More NATO/Ukraine-aligned than Patriots. Seen as the “respectable” far right. The critical question: will EPP formally partner with ECR after 2029?