EU Green Deal: Climate Targets Under Political Pressure

The EU Green Deal was unveiled in December 2019 as the centrepiece of von der Leyen’s first Commission, positioning Europe as the global leader in climate action. The Fit for 55 package — the legislative architecture translating the 2050 net-zero goal into 2030 milestones — was largely agreed by 2022–2023, covering emissions trading, renewable energy targets, building efficiency, and the landmark 2035 end-of-sale date for new petrol and diesel cars. The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which will place a carbon price on imports from countries without equivalent carbon pricing, began its transitional phase in 2023 and will be fully operational from 2026. On paper, the EU has enacted the most comprehensive national climate legislation in the world.

In practice, political momentum has shifted significantly. The 2024 European Parliament elections produced a more sceptical chamber on climate, with EPP, ECR, and Patriots collectively capable of blocking or rolling back Green Deal legislation. The EPP — which supported the Green Deal under its 2019 leadership — ran in 2024 on a platform of “Green Deal realism,” arguing that implementation timelines are unrealistic and that competitiveness concerns must take precedence. Several key pieces of legislation were watered down or delayed: the Nature Restoration Law passed only after extensive modifications, the pesticide reduction regulation was withdrawn entirely, and the industrial deforestation regulation was postponed. The phrase “Green Deal rollback” is now common currency in Brussels.

The 2035 ICE ban has become the most visible battleground. Germany — under pressure from Volkswagen, BMW, and Mercedes — successfully inserted a review clause in 2023 that requires the Commission to assess the policy’s status by 2026. Italy and the Czech Republic have been vocal supporters of a technology-neutral alternative that would allow synthetic fuels (e-fuels) as a path to keep ICE engines alive post-2035. Supporters of the ban argue that any weakening would devastate the business case for EV investment that automakers have already committed to. The Commission’s 2026 review will be one of the most consequential industrial policy decisions of the decade.