Latvia: NATO Frontline, Russian Minority & Baltic Resilience

Latvia is governed by a center-right coalition led by Prime Minister Evika Silina of New Unity. The coalition excludes the For Stability! party — the political vehicle most closely associated with Latvia's Russian-speaking community — a deliberate decision reflecting both security concerns and national identity politics. Latvia's governing consensus is firmly pro-EU, pro-NATO, and pro-Ukraine; there is no serious political force in the coalition with ties to Moscow or sympathy for Russian geopolitical positions.

The Russian-speaking minority question sits at the heart of Latvian domestic politics. Approximately 27% of Latvia's population is Russian-speaking, a legacy of Soviet-era migration policy that brought workers from across the USSR to Latvian factories. Latvia has pursued a policy of Latvian-language integration: legislation has restricted Russian-language schooling, made Latvian the sole official language, and required naturalization tests for Soviet-era settlers and their descendants who did not have pre-1940 Latvian citizenship. This policy has reduced the number of "non-citizens" (a special legal status unique to Latvia) from around 700,000 in the 1990s to fewer than 200,000 today, but the process remains politically charged.

Daugavpils — Latvia's second city, located near the Belarusian border — is approximately 40% Russian-speaking and represents the geographic center of this tension. The city's political culture differs markedly from Riga's, and it regularly produces high vote shares for For Stability! and its predecessors. The Latvian government has invested in integration programs, youth education, and regional economic development in an attempt to build civic Latvian identity across linguistic lines.

Latvia's 217km land border with Russia (plus its maritime border in the Gulf of Riga) makes it one of NATO's most exposed front-line states. Following Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea, NATO deployed Enhanced Forward Presence battle groups to each Baltic state; Canada leads the Latvia EFP, which is based at Camp Adazi north of Riga. Since Russia's 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, these forces have been reinforced and Latvia has significantly increased its own defense spending, aiming to reach 3% of GDP.

Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania have taken some of the most hawkish positions within NATO on Russia policy. All three have called for maximum support for Ukraine, advocated for NATO troop increases on the eastern flank, and pushed for the fastest possible European energy independence from Russian gas. Latvia completed its disconnection from the Soviet-era BRELL electricity grid (shared with Belarus and Russia) in February 2025, synchronizing its power grid with Continental Europe — a major infrastructure milestone that removed a key Russian energy leverage point.