TX-23 House Race 2026

The District: 600 Miles of Border, Oil, and Military

Texas's 23rd congressional district is one of the most geographically extraordinary in the country. Stretching roughly 600 miles from the western edge of San Antonio's suburbs through the Trans-Pecos desert mountains to the eastern suburbs of El Paso, it covers more territory than many US states. The district includes Big Bend National Park, the Davis Mountains, vast oil fields at the edge of the Permian Basin, hundreds of miles of Rio Grande border, and major military installations including Laughlin Air Force Base in Del Rio and Fort Bliss just outside the district in El Paso proper.

Tony Gonzales represents the district with a profile well-suited to its character. A Navy cryptologist who spent two decades in classified intelligence work, he is a son of a Mexican immigrant who speaks fluent Spanish — critical in a district where a majority of residents are Hispanic. His background allows him to navigate the tension between border security concerns (which his constituents feel intensely) and immigration policy nuance that most national Republicans handle clumsily. He has occasionally broken with House Republican leadership, most notably voting for hate crimes legislation after the El Paso mass shooting and for bipartisan border compromise legislation that the Freedom Caucus killed.

The most important trend in TX-23 is the structural realignment of Hispanic voters in border Texas toward Republicans. This shift, which accelerated dramatically in 2020 and continued in 2022 and 2024, has transformed districts like TX-23 from competitive swing seats to solid Republican terrain. The reasons are debated — border security concerns, Catholic social conservatism, economic mobility aspirations, and cultural distance from progressive urban Democratic politics all play a role. What is clear is that the Hispanic men in particular along the Rio Grande have moved substantially toward the Republican Party, making the Democratic coalition in these districts far weaker than it was a decade ago.

• Gonzales primary challenge: The more likely threat to Gonzales in 2026 is from the right, not the left. His occasional bipartisan votes draw the ire of MAGA activists, and a well-funded primary challenger aligned with the Freedom Caucus could force a difficult primary that weakens him for November.
• Hispanic realignment trajectory: Will the rightward shift of Hispanic voters in border Texas continue, plateau, or show any signs of reversal? Economic performance, immigration enforcement impacts on mixed-status families, and cross-border trade disruption will all influence this trend.
• Cross-border trade disruption: TX-23 communities depend heavily on legal cross-border commerce. If tariffs or enforcement actions significantly disrupt trade at Del Rio, Eagle Pass, Presidio, and other crossings, the economic pain is directly felt by Gonzales's constituents — and he will be expected to advocate for relief.
• Oil price environment: A sustained drop in oil prices to below $50/barrel would meaningfully damage the West Texas economy and reduce the Republican advantage in energy-dependent communities.
• Military base decisions: Any movement toward base closure reviews or significant force reductions at Laughlin AFB or Fort Bliss would generate immediate political pressure on Gonzales to protect military employment in his district.