WI-1 is rated Lean R. Steil has won comfortably, and Trump's ~6-point margin in 2024 provides a solid Republican baseline. But Wisconsin's overall competitiveness and the district's union manufacturing communities create Democratic opportunity. This becomes competitive if Democrats recruit a candidate with deep Racine or Janesville roots and the national environment strongly favors Democrats. Full House overview →
The Candidates
Bryan Steil
Attorney and former Wisconsin Republican Party chairman. Won the WI-1 seat in 2018 when Paul Ryan retired after nearly three decades. Steil has managed the transition from Ryan's deficit-hawk, business conservative identity to a more Trump-aligned positioning while maintaining relationships with the district's business community. He serves on the House Administration Committee, handling election law issues. A thoughtful legislator from the Ryan mold who has adapted to the party's populist direction.
Weaknesses: Manufacturing workers skeptical of GOP trade policies; Kenosha and Racine union communities; potential primary threat from further-right challengers.
TBD Democrat
Democrats need a candidate with genuine roots in the Racine-Kenosha labor community or Janesville's manufacturing-adjacent networks. A union-backed candidate, former local official, or someone with name recognition from Rock or Racine county politics would have the best path. The DCCC will look hard at WI-1 if polls show the national environment shifting Democratic in 2026.
Challenges: Trump won district by ~6; Steil incumbency; Ryan-era Republican infrastructure remains strong.
District Election History
Race Analysis
The District: Paul Ryan Country, Manufacturing Belt, and Wisconsin's Southeastern Corner
Wisconsin's 1st congressional district is one of the most storied in the Midwest, having produced Paul Ryan — Speaker of the House and 2012 vice-presidential nominee — who held it for nearly three decades before retiring in 2018. The district covers the southeastern corner of Wisconsin: Racine and Kenosha on Lake Michigan, the inland manufacturing city of Janesville (Ryan's hometown, home to a now-closed GM plant), and the agricultural communities of Rock, Walworth, and Jefferson counties. Its geographic profile is a microcosm of the Midwest's economic transformation — automotive-era manufacturing communities, small agricultural towns, and growing exurban areas outside Milwaukee and Chicago.
The district's rightward trajectory in recent decades reflects broader working-class Midwest realignment. Janesville's GM plant closure in 2008 was a inflection point — the community that once produced union Democrats increasingly votes for candidates who speak to economic grievance and cultural conservatism. Kenosha gained national attention in 2020 following civil unrest after the shooting of Jacob Blake, an event that shaped local Republican politics and may have contributed to Trump's improvement in the district in 2020 and 2024. Racine, historically a Democratic stronghold with strong union roots in manufacturing, has trended Republican in recent cycles.
Democrats who want to compete in WI-1 face a structural challenge: Trump won the district by ~6 in 2024, meaning they need a candidate who significantly outperforms the baseline. In 2018, progressive candidate Randy Bryce — an ironworker known as "Iron Stache" — came within 10 points of Steil, demonstrating that the right candidate profile can mobilize working-class Democrats. A similar strategy in 2026 — labor-oriented, locally rooted, focused on trade and manufacturing — is probably the Democrats' best path. But the district's Republican lean is real, and unless the national environment strongly favors Democrats, WI-1 will remain safely Republican.
Key Issues
Manufacturing & Trade Policy
WI-1's economy is built around manufacturing — auto parts suppliers, plastics, food processing, and industrial equipment. Trump's tariffs directly affect supply chains for these industries. While many manufacturing workers politically support Trump, the economic consequences of trade wars on their employers create potential vulnerabilities. The ghost of Janesville's GM plant looms over every trade debate.
Public Safety & Community Stability
The 2020 unrest in Kenosha following Jacob Blake's shooting was a defining political event in WI-1. Public safety, law and order, and community stability have remained salient issues. Racine has also dealt with crime concerns in its urban core. Republicans have successfully framed this issue in their favor, but Democrats argue that economic investment and community policing are the real solutions.
Healthcare & Rural Hospital Access
The agricultural and small-city communities of Rock, Walworth, and Jefferson counties face the same rural hospital closure threats affecting much of the Midwest. Healthcare costs and access are salient issues for working-class voters who lack employer-provided insurance or face high deductibles. Democrats will use Medicaid expansion, ACA protections, and prescription drug costs as wedge issues in WI-1.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who represents WI-1 in Congress?
Rep. Bryan Steil (R) represents Wisconsin's 1st congressional district, covering Racine, Kenosha, Janesville, and the southeastern corner of Wisconsin. Steil won the seat in 2018 when longtime representative Paul Ryan retired.
Is WI-1 competitive in 2026?
WI-1 is rated Lean R. Trump won the district by approximately 6 points in 2024 and Steil has won comfortably in multiple cycles. Democrats see opportunity in the district's manufacturing and union communities, particularly if the national environment strongly favors them, but the Republican baseline is solid.
What are the key issues in WI-1 in 2026?
WI-1 is defined by manufacturing employment and trade policy, public safety concerns stemming from the 2020 Kenosha unrest, and healthcare costs in the working-class and agricultural communities of Rock, Racine, and Walworth counties. Trump tariff impacts on manufacturing supply chains create a potential Democratic opening on economic issues.
