Crime & Public Safety Polling 2026

The most consequential dynamic in crime politics is the persistent gap between public perception and measured crime rates. For over two decades, Gallup has found that the majority of Americans believe crime is rising nationally — even during extended periods when FBI and CDC data showed violent crime declining. In 2023 and 2024, FBI data showed violent crime fell after a pandemic-era spike in 2020-2021, yet 71% of Americans said in 2025 polling that they believed crime was getting worse.

This perception gap is not evenly distributed. Republicans are significantly more likely than Democrats or independents to believe crime is rising, consistent with the heavy focus on crime narratives in conservative media. Local experience matters: residents of high-crime urban neighborhoods are more accurate in their assessments of local crime trends, while suburban and rural respondents — who are statistically far less likely to be victims of violent crime — often have the most exaggerated perceptions of national crime trends.

The political consequence is structural: when voters believe crime is rising, they tend to favor the party seen as tougher on crime. Republicans have held that advantage for most of the past 40 years, and polling in 2025-2026 shows they retain a net +15 to +20 point advantage on being trusted to handle crime, despite being out of office in many high-crime cities.

The "defund the police" movement emerged from the George Floyd protests in summer 2020 as a demand to redirect police funding to social services and community programs. It was one of the most politically damaging phrases in recent Democratic history: it never commanded majority public support — even among Black Americans, who are most directly affected by both police violence and under-policing in high-crime neighborhoods — and was weaponized effectively by Republicans in 2020, 2022, and 2024.

By 2026, the political landscape on policing has stabilized: 52% of Americans want more police funding; 35% want funding redirected to social services; 13% want significant cuts. This is nearly identical to pre-2020 polling. The short-term spike in support for police defunding (which peaked at roughly 32% in mid-2020) has fully reversed.

On police accountability and reform, public opinion is more nuanced. 68% of Americans support requiring body cameras on all patrol officers. 61% support independent oversight boards for police departments. 57% support banning chokeholds. These reform measures command broad support even among voters who oppose defunding — suggesting the public wants reform and resources, not a binary choice.

The fentanyl and synthetic opioid crisis is the dominant public safety issue that does not break cleanly on traditional partisan lines. With over 70,000 overdose deaths annually at the crisis peak, and fentanyl now present in a wide range of street drugs, the issue touches virtually every community in America — rural and urban, red and blue.

78% of Americans support treating fentanyl as a national emergency, making it one of the highest-polling bipartisan public safety measures in recent surveys. The policy divide is about how to respond, not whether to prioritize it:

• Republican framing: Fentanyl is a border security crisis. Most fentanyl enters through ports of entry, often hidden in commercial shipments, but the narrative focuses on illegal immigration as a vector. 74% of Republicans support militarizing the border specifically to stop fentanyl trafficking.
• Democratic framing: Fentanyl is a public health crisis requiring treatment, harm reduction (naloxone distribution, safe use sites), and disruption of supply chains at the source — primarily Mexican cartels and Chinese chemical suppliers. 66% of Democrats prioritize treatment over criminalization.
• Both agree: 81% of all voters support expanded access to naloxone (the overdose-reversal drug); 77% support mandatory fentanyl testing strips being available in communities.

Gun violence in America is statistically unique among wealthy democracies: the US has a gun homicide rate approximately 26 times higher than the average of other high-income countries. Yet it is also a country where 32% of adults own guns and 44% live in a gun-owning household, with deep cultural, regional, and constitutional attachments to gun ownership.

This creates a polling paradox: broad majorities support specific gun safety measures, while broad majorities also oppose any general ban on guns. 83% support universal background checks; 67% support red flag laws allowing temporary removal of guns from people deemed dangerous; 63% support a ban on assault-style weapons. Yet 57% oppose a general handgun ban, and majorities in most polls say they believe the right to own guns is important to American freedom.

The 2026 political environment around gun violence is shaped by the accumulated weight of mass shootings since the 2012 Sandy Hook massacre, which shifted suburban opinion. Democratic-leaning suburban women — a crucial swing demographic — consistently rank gun safety as a top-three issue. Republicans have largely held firm against new restrictions, arguing that enforcement of existing laws is the priority and that new laws will not stop determined criminals.

Sources: Gallup, Pew Research Center, AP-NORC, YouGov, 2025–2026. Figures represent % who support the stated measure.

Crime and public safety have been reliable Republican issue advantages in midterm elections for most of the past four decades. In 2026, the dynamics are more complex than in previous cycles for several reasons.

R advantage on crime framing: Republicans hold a structural advantage when the debate is framed around general crime levels, policing, and "law and order." Voters trust Republicans more on crime by roughly 15-20 points nationally — a gap that has persisted through Democratic administrations and Republican administrations alike. In swing suburban House districts, crime messaging has been particularly effective for Republicans since 2020.

D recovery on gun safety: Democrats have reclaimed partial ground through the gun safety frame, which polls well with suburban voters — especially women — and is particularly resonant after high-profile mass shootings. The Bipartisan Safer Communities Act (2022), which expanded background checks and provided funding for mental health resources, gave Democrats a legislative record to run on. In several 2022 and 2024 suburban districts, gun safety outpolled "defund" messaging as the dominant public safety issue.

Key 2026 races: In competitive Senate races in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada, crime and fentanyl are top-five voter concerns. The fentanyl issue in particular is strongly felt in rural Appalachian and Rust Belt communities that vote heavily Republican — giving R candidates a consistent rallying point. In suburban House districts across Arizona, Georgia, Colorado, and Virginia, gun safety (particularly in the wake of school shootings) is a D mobilization tool among parents and educators.