SCOTUS Approval: Key Trend Points
Dobbs: The Approval Watershed
The Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision (June 24, 2022) was the single largest negative approval event in modern SCOTUS polling history. Approval dropped 9 percentage points in approximately six weeks. The decision not only moved overall approval but also reshaped the partisan composition of SCOTUS trust in ways that have not reversed.
Among women, approval fell to 35% in the immediate post-Dobbs period. Among voters under 40, it fell to 31%. Among Democrats, it collapsed to 24%. Four years later, SCOTUS has recovered 3 points nationally but among these subgroups recovery has been partial at best. The presidential immunity ruling in July 2024 — giving presidents broad immunity from criminal prosecution for official acts — further eroded Democratic confidence in the Court’s independence.
Ethics Controversies and Reform Pressure
Reporting beginning in 2023 about undisclosed gifts and travel to Justice Thomas from conservative megadonor Harlan Crow, and similar reporting about Justice Alito, produced sustained negative attention. 64% of Americans say the Supreme Court’s ethics rules are insufficient; 72% support mandatory financial disclosure for justices (the same standard applied to lower federal court judges).
Congress passed a limited SCOTUS code of ethics in late 2023, but it lacks enforcement mechanisms — a gap that 67% of Americans say makes it inadequate. Democratic proposals to expand the Court from nine to thirteen justices poll at 34% support overall, but 61% support among self-identified Democrats — indicating a growing Democratic constituency for structural reform that will shape 2026 and 2028 campaign platforms.