Shapiro: The Strongest Polling Profile
Josh Shapiro entered the national consciousness during his 2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial race, when he defeated far-right Republican Doug Mastriano by 14.8 points — a strikingly strong margin in a state Biden had won by just 1.2% in 2020. As governor, Shapiro has compiled a record focused on infrastructure (the rapid reconstruction of a collapsed I-95 bridge in less than two weeks became a national news story), economic development, and labor relations. His approval in Pennsylvania at approximately 58% is the highest of any Democratic governor in a swing state. Shapiro is the candidate most frequently named by Democratic primary voters as their first or second choice in 2028 hypothetical polls. He is Jewish, which would be historically significant if he were nominated; he is also one of the party's most skilled retail politicians.
Whitmer: The Purple State Fighter
Gretchen Whitmer's tenure in Michigan has been defined by two things: the COVID-19 pandemic response (which generated both national praise and a domestic terrorism plot against her), and a remarkable run of post-2022 progressive legislative accomplishment when Democrats won unified control of the state government for the first time in decades. Whitmer signed legislation expanding abortion rights, repealing a right-to-work law, increasing the minimum wage, and legalizing recreational cannabis. Her approval at 52% in Michigan reflects a genuine purple state dynamic — strong with Democrats, muted with Republicans and some independents. Her argument for the presidency is simple: she has won twice in Michigan, a state Democrats must hold, and she has governed effectively in a challenging state.
Moore: The Party's Most Exciting New Voice
Wes Moore, who became Maryland's first Black governor in January 2023, is the youngest of the four and the one who generates the most visceral excitement among Democratic activists. His personal biography — a West Point graduate, Army Ranger combat veteran, Rhodes Scholar, and best-selling author — is extraordinary and provides an unusually compelling answer to Republican attacks on Democratic candidates. Moore's 2028 challenge is primarily one of experience: he will have been governor for only four years when the primary begins, and his national political footprint is still developing. Maryland is a heavily Democratic state, which means he cannot point to the same cross-partisan electoral performance that Whitmer and Shapiro can. But his national polling numbers and favorability with Democratic primary voters have been consistently strong.
Newsom: The Complicated Frontrunner
Gavin Newsom has the longest national profile and arguably the most aggressive national political ambition of the four. He has debated Republican politicians, launched a national Democratic messaging operation, and explicitly positioned himself as a national voice for the party. His challenge is California: a 47% home state approval driven by cost-of-living concerns, homelessness visible in major cities, and wildfire management that drew national criticism. Republicans will use California as a cudgel in a general election. Newsom's response — that California's economy is the fifth largest in the world and that it leads on clean energy, technology, and civil rights — plays well in a primary but is a more difficult case in general election competitive states. He is in the race if he chooses to be; whether the party nominates him is a more open question.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which Democratic governors are most likely to run in 2028?
Gretchen Whitmer (MI), Josh Shapiro (PA), Wes Moore (MD), and Gavin Newsom (CA) are the four most frequently discussed. Shapiro leads in hypothetical primary polls. Moore generates the most grassroots enthusiasm. Newsom has the most national infrastructure. Whitmer has the most directly relevant purple-state track record.
What are their approval ratings?
Shapiro 58% (PA), Moore 56% (MD), Whitmer 52% (MI), Newsom 47% (CA). Shapiro and Moore have the strongest numbers. Newsom's California approval is the lowest of the group.
Why do governors have an advantage over senators for 2028?
Governors have won the presidency more often than senators because executive experience is a direct credential. They can point to managing crises, budgets, and agencies. Purple-state governors specifically can demonstrate the cross-partisan appeal needed in a general election — the most valuable signal for a Democratic primary electorate that prioritizes electability.
