Maine Senate 2026

Placeholder average. Gap narrows significantly if Jared Golden enters the race — a named Democrat vs. Collins would likely track 49-46 or closer. Figures to be updated.

Susan Collins is one of the most remarkable electoral survivors in modern American politics. First elected in 1996, she has won five consecutive Senate terms in a state that has grown increasingly Democratic at the presidential level. In 2020, she won re-election by 9 percentage points while Maine simultaneously voted for Joe Biden by 9 points — an 18-point split-ticket performance that is extraordinary by any measure in today's polarized political environment.

Collins has cultivated her moderate image through a series of high-profile breaks with her party. She voted to convict President Trump in both impeachment trials. She co-sponsored bipartisan gun safety legislation after mass shootings. She opposed the repeal of the Affordable Care Act's individual mandate provisions. She has worked across the aisle on infrastructure, veterans' care, and appropriations. None of these positions have cost her the Republican nomination in Maine, where the GOP primary electorate is significantly more moderate than in most other states.

Collins turns 74 in 2026. The question of whether she will run for a sixth term — which would carry her through age 80 — has not yet been definitively answered, though she has not given any signals of retirement. If she runs, she is the clear favorite. If she retires, the seat becomes a Toss-up instantly.

Jared Golden represents Maine's 2nd congressional district, a large rural district that covers the state's interior and northern reaches — a district that voted for Trump by double digits in both 2016 and 2020, yet returned Golden to Congress in both years. Golden has achieved this by running explicitly as a moderate Democrat who splits from his party on key votes: he has broken with Democrats on gun legislation, immigration, and defense spending.

A Golden vs. Collins race would be one of the most intellectually interesting Senate matchups of 2026, pitting two incumbents with genuine moderate credentials against each other in a state that rewards exactly that profile. Golden's challenge would be consolidating enough of the traditional Democratic base in southern Maine (Portland metro, mid-coast) while holding his rural 2nd district voters — some of whom might prefer Collins on grounds of seniority, committee positions, and the tradition of keeping a senior senator in place. Collins' challenge would be motivating Republican turnout while maintaining her crossover appeal with the large bloc of independent and Democratic voters who have backed her in prior cycles.

Maine adopted ranked-choice voting (RCV) for federal elections following a 2016 ballot initiative, and it has been used in several congressional and Senate races since. Under RCV, voters rank candidates in order of preference (1st choice, 2nd choice, 3rd choice, etc.). If no candidate receives more than 50% of first-choice votes, the last-place candidate is eliminated and their votes are redistributed according to the voters' next preferences. This process continues until one candidate crosses 50%.

For the 2026 Senate race, RCV matters primarily if there is a significant third-party or independent candidate in the race. Maine has a history of independent candidacies (Angus King, the state's independent senator, originally won his seat as an independent). If an independent enters the Maine Senate race in 2026, RCV could produce a different outcome than a traditional plurality system. Under RCV, Collins' high approval ratings among both Republican and independent voters should mean she performs well across multiple rounds of counting — but in a close three-way race, the mathematics can surprise.