Florida House Races 2026: Competitive Districts in the Sunshine State
Florida has 28 House seats — 20 held by Republicans and 8 by Democrats. After DeSantis's 2022 redistricting, most seats are safe partisan. But Miami-Dade and Tampa Bay suburban districts remain competitive, with 4 races drawing national attention.
Competitive Districts 2026
| District | Incumbent | Party | 2024 Margin | Partisan Lean | Cook 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FL-9 | Darren Soto (retiring?) | D | +8 | D+3 | Lean D |
| FL-13 | Anna Paulina Luna | R | +6 | D+1 | Toss-up |
| FL-27 | Maria Elvira Salazar | R | +8 | D+4 | Lean D |
| FL-7 | Cory Mills | R | +10 | R+2 | Lean R |
| FL-23 | Jared Moskowitz | D | +14 | D+8 | Safe D |
Key Races Analysis
FL-13: Luna vs. Democrats (Tampa Bay)
Anna Paulina Luna won FL-13 in 2022 and 2024, but this St. Petersburg/Tampa Bay district leans D+1. Luna has developed a distinct brand — sometimes bipartisan, colorful social media presence — but Medicaid cuts and abortion could flip suburban voters. Democrats have strong candidate bench in Tampa Bay.
FL-27: Salazar's Miami-Dade Fortress
Maria Elvira Salazar has won FL-27 (Coral Gables/South Miami) despite it being D+4 by national registration. Her Cuban-American identity and anti-communist messaging plays well in the district. But economic anxiety from tariffs and healthcare cuts could create an opening. DCCC invested heavily here in 2022 and 2024.
DeSantis Map: The Structural Challenge
DeSantis's 2022 redistricting eliminated two majority-minority districts (FL-5, FL-10) that reliably elected Black Democrats, adding those voters to safe-R districts. Courts struck back partially, but Florida's map still gives Republicans 3-5 extra seats vs. a neutral map. Democrats must run the table in Miami and Tampa to make gains.
Full Florida House Delegation 2026
| District | Incumbent | Party | Region | 2026 Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FL-1 | Matt Gaetz (vacant — appointed then resigned) | R | Panhandle | Safe R |
| FL-2 | Neal Dunn | R | Tallahassee/N.FL | Safe R |
| FL-3 | Kat Cammack | R | Gainesville area | Safe R |
| FL-4 | Aaron Bean | R | NE Florida | Safe R |
| FL-5 | John Rutherford | R | Jacksonville | Safe R |
| FL-6 | Open (Gaetz seat) | R | Panhandle | Safe R |
| FL-7 | Cory Mills | R | Orlando suburbs | Lean R |
| FL-8 | Bill Posey | R | Space Coast | Safe R |
| FL-9 | Darren Soto | D | Kissimmee/Osceola | Lean D |
| FL-10 | Maxwell Frost | D | Orlando | Safe D |
| FL-11 | Daniel Webster | R | Central FL | Safe R |
| FL-12 | Gus Bilirakis | R | Tampa North | Safe R |
| FL-13 | Anna Paulina Luna | R | St. Petersburg | Toss-up |
| FL-14 | Kathy Castor | D | Tampa | Safe D |
| FL-15 | Laurel Lee | R | Tampa East | Safe R |
| FL-16 | Vern Buchanan | R | Sarasota | Safe R |
| FL-17 | Greg Steube | R | SW Florida | Safe R |
| FL-18 | Scott Franklin | R | Lakeland area | Safe R |
| FL-19 | Byron Donalds | R | Naples/Ft Myers | Safe R |
| FL-20 | Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick | D | Broward/Palm Beach | Safe D |
| FL-21 | Brian Mast | R | Palm Beach N. | Safe R |
| FL-22 | Lois Frankel | D | Palm Beach | Safe D |
| FL-23 | Jared Moskowitz | D | Broward | Safe D |
| FL-24 | Frederica Wilson | D | Miami Gardens | Safe D |
| FL-25 | Debbie Wasserman Schultz | D | Weston/Dade | Safe D |
| FL-26 | Mario Diaz-Balart | R | Miami NW | Safe R |
| FL-27 | Maria Elvira Salazar | R | Coral Gables | Lean D |
| FL-28 | Carlos Gimenez | R | South Miami-Dade | Likely R |
