- Phil Scott (R) is term-limited — Vermont's open governor race may be one of the few Republican-held seats that Democrats can flip.
- Vermont is rated Lean Democratic — Scott won as a moderate Republican anomaly in a deeply blue state; his successor will likely lack his crossover appeal.
- Vermont's unique political culture — liberal on social issues, independent-minded, skeptical of both party establishments — makes candidate quality the decisive factor in the governor's race.
- The Vermont governor's race will test whether Scott's moderate Republicanism was a personal brand or replicable coalition — the answer has national implications for moderate Republican strategy.
Vermont is rated Safe Republican — not because Vermont is a competitive state, but because Phil Scott is uniquely popular. He won re-election in 2024 by over 40 points while Vermont simultaneously gave Kamala Harris her third-largest presidential margin in the country. No credible Democratic challenger is expected. Full governor overview →
2024 Result — Scott vs. Brynn (D)
2024 Vermont governor result. Scott won by 43 points, capturing over two-thirds of the vote in a state where the Republican presidential nominee lost by 35 points the same day. The divergence illustrates the extraordinary extent to which Scott has decoupled himself from national Republican politics.
Key Facts — Vermont Governor 2026
Race Analysis
The Phil Scott Anomaly
Phil Scott represents one of the most striking political anomalies in modern American elections. Vermont is, by most measures, the most reliably Democratic state in the country for presidential elections — it has not voted for a Republican president since 1988 and regularly produces some of the largest Democratic presidential margins in the nation. Yet Scott has won re-election by double-digit margins in every cycle since first taking office in 2016. The explanation is not that Vermont has hidden Republican voters. It is that Scott has positioned himself as a governor rather than a partisan, earning genuine trust from Democratic and independent voters who nonetheless continue to vote Democratic for every other major office.
The Trump Relationship
Scott's relationship with the national Republican Party is openly adversarial. He refused to vote for Donald Trump in 2016, voted for a write-in candidate in 2020, and publicly criticized Trump after January 6th, 2021, calling it "the most disturbing thing I've ever witnessed in my political career." He declined to endorse the Republican presidential nominee in 2024. Scott has called for the Republican Party to move past Trump and has occasionally suggested he might consider a primary challenge to the national party's direction. This posture is not a liability in Vermont — it is a central component of his brand. Republican governors in deep-blue states who want to survive must credibly distance themselves from national Republican positions, and Scott has done this more consistently and authentically than almost any other governor.
Governing Under a Democratic Supermajority
Scott governs against a legislature with Democratic supermajorities in both chambers, creating a dynamic of constant negotiation and occasional veto override. The legislature has passed progressive priorities on climate, education funding, and social services; Scott has pushed back primarily on the fiscal dimensions, vetoing bills he considers unaffordable or excessively tax-heavy. He has generally accepted the social policy agenda — signing expanded gun background checks, supporting codified abortion polling, and endorsing the state's ambitious climate goals — while drawing lines on revenue and spending. This arrangement has, paradoxically, given Vermont voters the best of both worlds: a progressive policy direction with a fiscal check, which may explain why his approval ratings remain exceptionally high despite disagreements with both parties.
Key Issues
Vermont faces severe housing shortages driven by out-of-state migration and an aging housing stock. Affordability and supply in Burlington and surrounding communities is a top legislative priority.
Vermont has aggressive climate commitments and passed a landmark climate superfund law. Scott has supported the goals while pushing back on cost and pace, creating ongoing tension with the Democratic legislature.
Scott has vetoed multiple tax-and-spend packages passed by the Democratic supermajority, positioning himself as a fiscal brake on progressive priorities and warning against unsustainable budget growth.
Vermont has one of the most expensive healthcare systems per capita. State efforts to control costs and expand coverage have been a persistent legislative challenge since the collapse of the single-payer Green Mountain Care plan.
Vermont's small-state economy relies on agriculture, tourism, and a growing remote-work sector. Dairy farming faces long-term structural challenges; broadband expansion is critical for rural community viability.
Vermont was heavily impacted by catastrophic flooding in 2023 and 2024. Long-term flood mitigation, infrastructure rebuilding, and federal disaster coordination remain an ongoing priority for the Scott administration.
Historical Governor Results — Vermont
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Phil Scott running for re-election in 2026?
Scott is widely expected to seek a fifth term in 2026. Vermont has no gubernatorial term limits. Scott has won every election since 2016 by landslide margins, and the race is rated Safe Republican based entirely on his personal popularity rather than any partisan competitiveness in the state.
How does Phil Scott win in such a Democratic state?
Scott wins by decoupling his candidacy from national Republican politics. He has openly criticized Donald Trump, refused to endorse the Republican presidential nominee in 2020 and 2024, signed gun background check legislation, and supported codified abortion rights. Vermont voters trust his moderate record and personal character. In 2024 he won by 43 points while the Republican presidential nominee lost the state by 35 points.
What is Phil Scott's record as Vermont governor?
Scott has governed as a fiscal moderate with progressive positions on social issues. His record includes signing expanded gun background check legislation, supporting abortion rights codification in state law, leading one of the country's most effective COVID-19 vaccine rollouts, and pushing back on Democratic supermajority spending packages via veto. His approval ratings have consistently ranked among the highest of any sitting American governor.
