USRaces / Senate
Texas Senate race 2026: polls
Last updated: 28 Sep 2026
Leading in average
James Talarico
48.3%
Second
Ken Paxton
45.2%
Margin
+3.1
points, average of 8 pollsters
Latest poll
28 Sep 2026
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research
Polling average
Latest poll from each pollster (8 pollsters)
Average of the most recent poll per pollster. Polls differ in population (likely voters, registered voters, adults); see details below. Source: VoteHub (CC BY 4.0).
All polls
31 polls in the database
| Pollster | Date | Details | James Talarico | Ken Paxton | Ted Brown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 28 Sep 2026 | n=881 · LV · Sep 24–Sep 28 | 51.0 | 49.0 | – |
| Slingshot Strategies | 22 Sep 2026 | n=1,007 · LV · Sep 19–Sep 22 | 49.0 | 45.0 | 3.0 |
| Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | 19 Sep 2026 | n=1,800 · LV · Sep 15–Sep 19 | 47.0 | 46.0 | 3.0 |
| Emerson College | 14 Sep 2026 | n=1,000 · LV · Sep 12–Sep 14 | 47.0 | 46.0 | 2.0 |
| ReconMR/Siena University | 11 Sep 2026 | n=614 · LV · Sep 8–Sep 11 | 49.0 | 43.0 | – |
| InsiderAdvantage | 9 Sep 2026 | n=1,200 · LV · Sep 8–Sep 9 | 47.1 | 45.6 | 2.2 |
| YouGov | 4 Sep 2026 | n=1,000 · RV · Aug 27–Sep 4 | 48.0 | 43.0 | – |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | 1 Sep 2026 | n=895 · LV · Aug 30–Sep 1 | 48.0 | 44.0 | – |
| Slingshot Strategies | 24 Aug 2026 | n=1,000 · LV · Aug 21–Aug 24 | 48.0 | 42.0 | 1.0 |
| The Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin/YouGov | 13 Aug 2026 | n=1,218 · RV · Aug 5–Aug 13 | 42.0 | 39.0 | 3.0 |
| Emerson College | 10 Aug 2026 | n=1,000 · LV · Aug 9–Aug 10 | 46.0 | 47.0 | – |
| Wedgewood Polls | 31 Jul 2026 | n=800 · LV · Jul 30–Jul 31 | 48.0 | 46.0 | – |
| YouGov Blue | 31 Jul 2026 | n=1,001 · RV · Jul 15–Jul 31 | 48.0 | 45.0 | – |
| Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | 30 Jul 2026 | n=1,200 · LV · Jul 27–Jul 30 | 47.0 | 45.0 | 2.0 |
| ReconMR/Siena University | 30 Jul 2026 | n=619 · LV · Jul 27–Jul 30 | 47.0 | 43.0 | – |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 27 Jul 2026 | n=1,006 · RV · Jul 23–Jul 27 | 51.0 | 48.0 | – |
| Slingshot Strategies | 17 Jul 2026 | n=1,048 · LV · Jul 15–Jul 17 | 45.0 | 40.0 | 1.0 |
| A2 Insights | 28 Jun 2026 | n=618 · LV · Jun 23–Jun 28 | 48.4 | 46.1 | – |
| The New York Times/Siena University | 27 Jun 2026 | n=656 · LV · Jun 19–Jun 27 | 47.0 | 47.0 | – |
| SoCal Strategies | 21 Jun 2026 | n=800 · LV · Jun 21–Jun 21 | 47.1 | 48.5 | – |
| Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas/YouGov | 12 Jun 2026 | n=1,200 · RV · Jun 5–Jun 12 | 42.0 | 43.0 | – |
| Quantus Insights | 4 Jun 2026 | n=800 · LV · Jun 3–Jun 4 | 43.0 | 45.0 | – |
| ReconMR/Siena University | 4 Jun 2026 | n=807 · LV · Jun 1–Jun 4 | 47.0 | 44.0 | – |
| Slingshot Strategies | 28 May 2026 | n=1,670 · LV · May 27–May 28 | 48.0 | 45.0 | – |
| Public Policy Polling | 23 May 2026 | n=643 · LV · May 22–May 23 | 45.0 | 38.0 | 3.0 |
